ECCONET
08.11
From 2010 to 2013
TML was involved in the ECCONET project, which investigated the impact of climate change on inland navigation and possible adaptation measures. Based on various climate scenarios and economic analyses, the project identified adaptation measures in shipping technology, infrastructure, and operational processes and stressed the importance of continuous optimisation and maintenance of waterways without major infrastructural changes.
ECCONET, a DG MOVE research project from the EC 7th Framework Programme that ran from 2010 to 2012, studied adaptation to climate change, with inland waterways as the primary case study. The project examined both the impact of climate change on navigable waterways and the adaptation measures that can be taken.
In analysing the phenomenon of climate change, climate models within ECCONET focused on the effects on hydrology. Unlike many other projects related to climate change, ECCONET worked with a wide range of climate scenarios, rather than a specific extreme case. This made it possible to draw up a balanced picture of the future navigability of waterways in the Rhine-Main-Danube basin. Based on this picture, composed of two double "wet" and "dry" scenarios, a transport economic analysis was carried out, which showed that the impact of climate change on the individual Rhine market by 2050 is unlikely to be of such magnitude as to have a noticeable effect on the modal distribution. It will rather be the economic background factors, such as the fuel price, that weigh heavily on this. In the even longer term (up to 2100), climate change could have a major impact on transport conditions. However, this was not investigated further because of the low value of economic projections with such a horizon.
At the same time, ECCONET identified several possible adaptation measures. These could be divided into roughly four categories: vessel technology and applications, infrastructure and maintenance, better prediction of water levels, and changes to logistical and operational processes. The research consisted of a literature review, modelling, cost-effectiveness analysis, and stakeholder survey.
Given the limited impact of climate change on transport conditions, there is little benefit in expensive adaptation measures. Nevertheless, maintaining and improving transport conditions for inland navigation on the Rhine and Danube is of great importance. The current trend of scaling up vessels on the Rhine should be viewed with some caution, given their greater sensitivity to extreme drought. It should also be noted that adaptation measures that are not profitable in the period under consideration may become so when looking further into the future, given that a greater impact of climate change is expected in the period after 2050. For this reason, continuous monitoring of the condition of waterways is appropriate. Further focused research is also appropriate.
ECCONET, a DG MOVE research project from the EC 7th Framework Programme that ran from 2010 to 2012, studied adaptation to climate change, with inland waterways as the primary case study. The project examined both the impact of climate change on navigable waterways and the adaptation measures that can be taken.
In analysing the phenomenon of climate change, climate models within ECCONET focused on the effects on hydrology. Unlike many other projects related to climate change, ECCONET worked with a wide range of climate scenarios, rather than a specific extreme case. This made it possible to draw up a balanced picture of the future navigability of waterways in the Rhine-Main-Danube basin. Based on this picture, composed of two double "wet" and "dry" scenarios, a transport economic analysis was carried out, which showed that the impact of climate change on the individual Rhine market by 2050 is unlikely to be of such magnitude as to have a noticeable effect on the modal distribution. It will rather be the economic background factors, such as the fuel price, that weigh heavily on this. In the even longer term (up to 2100), climate change could have a major impact on transport conditions. However, this was not investigated further because of the low value of economic projections with such a horizon.
At the same time, ECCONET identified several possible adaptation measures. These could be divided into roughly four categories: vessel technology and applications, infrastructure and maintenance, better prediction of water levels, and changes to logistical and operational processes. The research consisted of a literature review, modelling, cost-effectiveness analysis, and stakeholder survey.
- The most promising vessel-related measures are weight reduction and the use of coupled convoys (especially on the Rhine). For more experimental modifications (such as adaptable thrust tunnels, flat hulls, and inflatable side elements), it could not be demonstrated that they could be cost-effective. Continuous operation (instead of 12-hour cycles as now) was also found not to offer solutions, due to high labour costs.
- The limited magnitude of climate change impacts over the timeframe considered means that major infrastructure adjustments are not justified. However, optimisation of current waterways through continuous and improved maintenance (especially on the Danube) are essential.
- The responsibility for predicting water levels (e.g., developing models for seasonal forecasts) lies with national or regional authorities. Although the real potential of such models is unknown, any improvement in forecasting capabilities could be a big win for the industry.
- During the study of operational and logistics processes, it was found that in periods of drought and low water levels (high transport prices or blockage of transport), loaders and shippers normally prefer to wait until it passes and use existing buffer capacity. Only during dry periods of several weeks or more will they consider using other (more expensive and less flexible) transport modes. Large investments in additional storage capacity, or even relocation of production units, are seen as the very last resort.
Given the limited impact of climate change on transport conditions, there is little benefit in expensive adaptation measures. Nevertheless, maintaining and improving transport conditions for inland navigation on the Rhine and Danube is of great importance. The current trend of scaling up vessels on the Rhine should be viewed with some caution, given their greater sensitivity to extreme drought. It should also be noted that adaptation measures that are not profitable in the period under consideration may become so when looking further into the future, given that a greater impact of climate change is expected in the period after 2050. For this reason, continuous monitoring of the condition of waterways is appropriate. Further focused research is also appropriate.
