Impact of higher LPG market share
18024
2018
TML investigated the global impact of an increase of LPG vehicles in the passenger car market, with a special focus on the EU 28 member states. The system dynamics model MOVEET was used to simulate different scenarios in which future market shares of various propulsion technologies were introduced to analyse the effects on vehicle numbers, emissions, and social costs.
Despite the advantages of LPG vehicles in terms of cost, air quality, and greenhouse emissions, the market share of LPG as a propulsion technology for passenger vehicles is limited. Except for a few (mainly European) countries with an LPG tradition, LPG's sales share is experiencing low to even stagnant growth. In this study, we analysed the impact of higher LPG uptake for the passenger car market worldwide, focusing on the EU 28 member states.
For our analysis, we used our proprietary system dynamic transport/fleet model, MOVEET. In it, we entered future market shares for various propulsion technologies and looked at their effects on the total number of vehicles in the active fleet, emissions, and social costs.
We calculated the impact of six scenarios: a modest, medium, and strong scenario, each held against a high and low background scenario of future electric vehicle take-up. We found that the fleet share of LPG could experience modest but significant growth by 2030, where the market share of electric vehicles within the fleet is still limited. Moreover, we see that LPG can play a role into 2050, with LPG vehicles more distinctly replacing traditional diesel and petrol vehicles under the scenarios in a higher LPG market penetration.
We can conclude that LPG is a valid fuel/drive technology to promote air quality and play a role in climate change mitigation strategies in the short to medium term. LPG, as a proven and mature technology, can lead to significant emissions reductions in the period 2020 - 2030 when the electric vehicle market is limited, even with limited cost savings for the user.
Despite the advantages of LPG vehicles in terms of cost, air quality, and greenhouse emissions, the market share of LPG as a propulsion technology for passenger vehicles is limited. Except for a few (mainly European) countries with an LPG tradition, LPG's sales share is experiencing low to even stagnant growth. In this study, we analysed the impact of higher LPG uptake for the passenger car market worldwide, focusing on the EU 28 member states.
For our analysis, we used our proprietary system dynamic transport/fleet model, MOVEET. In it, we entered future market shares for various propulsion technologies and looked at their effects on the total number of vehicles in the active fleet, emissions, and social costs.
We calculated the impact of six scenarios: a modest, medium, and strong scenario, each held against a high and low background scenario of future electric vehicle take-up. We found that the fleet share of LPG could experience modest but significant growth by 2030, where the market share of electric vehicles within the fleet is still limited. Moreover, we see that LPG can play a role into 2050, with LPG vehicles more distinctly replacing traditional diesel and petrol vehicles under the scenarios in a higher LPG market penetration.
We can conclude that LPG is a valid fuel/drive technology to promote air quality and play a role in climate change mitigation strategies in the short to medium term. LPG, as a proven and mature technology, can lead to significant emissions reductions in the period 2020 - 2030 when the electric vehicle market is limited, even with limited cost savings for the user.
