Market readiness of zero-emission heavy duty vehicles and related infrastructure

The European Green Deal and Sustainable Mobility Strategy require the transport sector to reduce its emissions by 90% by 2050, with an intermediate step of a 45% reduction by 2030. TML is leading the market analysis and project management of a study examining the current status and development of the heavy vehicle market, including the need for charging infrastructure and potential barriers to the introduction of zero-emission vehicles.

According to the European Green Deal and the European Commission's Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, the transport sector must reduce its emissions by 90% compared to 1990 by 2050. To achieve this, all new heavy vehicles must be completely emission-free from that year onwards. As an intermediate step, emissions from newly registered lorries over 5 tonnes and buses and coaches over 7.5 tonnes must be cut by an average of 45% by 2030 compared to 2019.

The aim of this study is to examine the status of the heavy vehicle market and its likely evolution by 2030.

The study will:

• Analyse the market development between 2025 and 2030 for the different heavy vehicle market segments and in the different Member States.
• Analyse the need for charging infrastructure and assess how this infrastructure is likely to develop in the various Member States.
• Identify potential barriers for the quick uptake of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles.

Evidence will be collected through desktop research and an extensive stakeholder consultation by means of interviews, workshops, and target group surveys. TML is responsible for project management and the market analysis.

The project will serve as input for a technology readiness report that is to be provided by the European Commission to the European Parliament and the European Council.