Electric vehicles impact study update

21114
2022
This project evaluated the impact of charging the increasing number of electric vehicles on the Belgian electricity grid, in the light of European and national policies that may limit sales of new internal combustion engines. TML was responsible for developing EV uptake scenarios up to 2050 and the spatial distribution of EVs at sector level.


This project evaluated the impact on the electricity grid of charging the increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs) in the Belgian car and van fleet. In fact, European legislation (e.g., the Fit for 55 policy package with a possible ban on the sale of new combustion engines) and national and regional policies (e.g., updated tax regimes in favour of zero-emission commercial vehicles) point to a strong increase in electric vehicle sales.

In the Synergrid project, we looked for a sustainable and quantitative vision of the future grid impact of electric mobility, with the aim of ensuring a coordinated response. The increasing number of electric vehicles and their charging patterns, especially home, public, workplace but also fast/ultra-fast charging, will influence the type and scale of charging infrastructure, the timing of related investments and the business models behind them.

The result of this project is an update of previous work carried out by Baringa and TML on the effects of electric mobility on the electricity grid in Belgium. This update considers new and more ambitious scenarios for the uptake of electric vehicles for passenger transport (cars) and freight transport (vans), as well as an increase in charger capacities and greater demand for fast charging.

To estimate the impact of electric mobility on the power grid, we need to get a picture of the spatial distribution of electric vehicle use. To this end, we coupled the TML fleet evolution model with a model that allocates new EVs at sector level with a size order of around 500 people. The latter model we developed in the previous EV impact study takes into account the number of passenger cars, population density, and welfare. We considered EV uptake scenarios up to the year 2050. Baringa uses these results as input for its EV network impact model.

TML was responsible for developing the EV uptake scenarios to 2050 and the corresponding spatial distribution of EVs at sector level.

Period

2022

Client

Synergrid

Partner

Baringa

Our team

Emanuela Peduzzi, Kris Vanherle
© 2025 Transport & Mobility Leuven | Westsite: Online Oplossingen en Webdesign