Transport sector evolution 2050
08.44
2008
Commissioned by a European energy producer, TML analysed the evolution of energy consumption, demand, stocks, and emissions in the transport sector until 2050, using CO2 reduction scenarios from the TREMOVE and POLES models.
A European energy producer commissioned TML to work out the evolution of stocks, demand, energy consumption, and emissions of the transport sector in the country concerned until 2050. The study covered all passenger and freight transport.
The impact of policy decisions and technological developments was also studied based on the several results of CO2 reduction scenarios generated by the TREMOVE model (for the horizon 2020) and the results of the carbon reduction and hydrogen scenarios of the POLES model as used in the WETO-H2 project (for the period 2020 - 2050).
In the short term, by 2020, strong growth in transport demand (especially road and air) will neutralise the positive impact of technological measures on CO₂ emissions.
In the long term, by 2050, there is uncertainty in terms of policy and technological trends. This made it difficult to estimate the correct impact.
But from the POLES WETO H2 study, we can infer that CO₂ emissions will be further reduced in the long term by applying a high carbon tax. The introduction of new technologies, such as hydrogen vehicles, will contribute to an additional reduction in CO₂ emissions but at the same time lead to a higher demand for transport and energy.
