Impact of New Road Infrastructure on CO2
11.58
2012
This study analysed the effects of three major infrastructure projects on CO2 emissions from Belgian road transport using traffic data and environmental impact assessments. TML compared several scenarios to quantify the impact of infrastructure expansion and the suction effect of new traffic.
Road transport in Belgium accounts for a significant share of total CO₂ emissions, some 18%. The European Union has decided that the Belgian transport sector should emit 15% less CO₂ emissions by 2020 compared to 2005 in order to control climate change. However, according to projections, if the decided policy continues, only an 8% reduction will be achieved by 2020, mainly due to improvements in the fuel efficiency of the vehicle fleet.
The various Belgian governments plan several major road infrastructure expansions over the next decade to improve traffic flow and relieve congestion on the current infrastructure. But new infrastructure also has a pull effect, generating new traffic. In this study, we looked at three major infrastructure interventions and their effect on CO₂ emissions.
Building this new road infrastructure, without any flanking measures, reduces the expected reduction to 6.3%. From a CO₂ emissions point of view, it is highly recommended to implement the described infrastructure projects only in combination with all necessary flanking measures.
1) The extension of the R0, the large ring road around Brussels
Road transport on and around the R0 accounts for some 13% of CO₂ emissions from road transport in Belgium. The extension of the R0 around Brussels was based on the existing environmental impact report. However, this did not examine the pure impact of just the infrastructure expansion, so this was one of the main tasks in this study. By comparing the scenarios business-as-usual, 1, and 5 from the EIA, it was possible to derive approximate CO₂ emissions in this case.
On top of that, an estimate of the suction effect was made. New infrastructure makes it easier to move around and therefore attracts new traffic. Our calculation shows that if additional lanes are built without any flanking measures, CO₂ emissions will be back to 2005 levels after just five years.
2) The Oosterweel link in Antwerp
CO₂ emissions from road transport in and around Antwerp amount to 18.5% of total Belgian road transport, i.e. more than the R0.
No EIA report was available for the Oosterweel link yet, so traffic data from the Master Plan 2020 was used as a basis there. Based on the traffic volumes, we calculated that in the BAU scenario, CO₂ emissions in 2020 remain more or less the same as in 2005. It could also be deduced that the construction of the Oosterweel link gives rise to a limited increase of 0.4%, where the Master Plan ensures a decrease of almost 4% in CO₂ emissions from traffic in Antwerp.
We made a conservative estimate of the magnitude of the generative effect of the new infrastructure in the medium term. The result is a 2.3% increase in CO₂ emissions in Antwerp for just the construction of the Oosterweel link. For the full Master Plan, the decrease would be reduced to -1.5%, meaning we do not come close to the target of -15%. Further traffic studies are strongly recommended. Perhaps this will be done during the preparation of the environmental impact report (EIR).
3) A new, fast connection (type Nx-road) between the E40 and Sint-Truiden, in addition to the existing N80
Given the current profile of the connection (with only very limited congestion), the construction of this new connection will ensure a better split of local and through traffic rather than attracting much new traffic. No significant impact on CO₂ emissions is therefore expected.
