World Container Model (WCM)
10.45
From 2010 to 2011
TML, together with TNO and the University of Delft, developed a strategic model for global container transport. TML was responsible for multimodal route and port selection using an improved logit choice model, which could analyse the impact of different scenarios on transport times and rates.
TNO developed a strategic model for global container transport in collaboration with Delft University and Transport & Mobility Leuven. The model allows analysing possible shifts in demand for container transport in the future and evaluating the effects of transport policies on it. The challenge was to design and validate a model that combines a consistent description of global trade flows, container flows, and transport services, combined with a port and multimodal route choice model.
Multimodal route choice and port choice were performed using an improved logit choice model, which takes into account the degree of overlap between alternative routes in the network. This improvement is especially important when analysing routes competing against a network of existing routes (such as the trans-Siberian railway). The model considers transport times, rates, and time valuation of goods. It describes annual container flows over shipping routes and through 437 container ports worldwide, based on trade information to and from all countries and taking into account more than 800 maritime container line services. Import, export, and transshipment flows of containers at ports as well as hinterland flows are distinguished.
The model was calibrated with publicly available port statistics. Scenario analyses done with the model include the impact of slow shipping, increases in land transport costs, major infrastructure projects such as the trans-Siberian railway, and the opening of polar shipping lanes. The model is used to develop long-term forecasts for the European Commission's Trans-European Network programme and the Port of Rotterdam Authority.
