Optimisation and SCBA rail link Gent-Terneuzen
17029 / 19002
From 2017 to 2019
TML conducted a forecast for rail transport in the ports of Ghent and Terneuzen until 2030, based on previous studies and interviews with port operators. These forecasts served as the basis for a SCBA of possible rail infrastructure investments.
With the merger of the ports of Ghent and Terneuzen, the aim is to develop a joint vision for rail transport to and from the port area, looking (among other things) at infrastructure optimisation.
In this assignment, TML initially provided a prognosis of rail transport in the port area, with a horizon of 2030. For the Dutch part, it was possible to work on the basis of previous studies; for Ghent, the forecast was based on interviews with the relevant companies in the port - with a specific focus on the biggest players (Arcelor, Volvo, Stukwerkers, DFDS). Meaningful infills of still available sites and reasonable estimates of business expansions were sought, taking into account the expected capacity of certain bottlenecks. Estimating the number of trains is done primarily on a weekly basis, which was then converted into a forecast of the number of train movements on a busy day. A low and high forecast was prepared. For the high forecast, a growth factor of 2.5 (Ghent) to 3.4 (Terneuzen) was considered feasible. The low forecast assumed lower economic growth and more limited development of new business sites. For this, we found that growth by a factor of 1.8 (Ghent) to 2 (Terneuzen) could reasonably be expected. These figures then formed the input for the capacity analysis, which was carried out by project leader Movares (NL).
As the penultimate phase of this project, TML prepared a social cost-benefit analysis (SCBA) for a set of possible rail infrastructure investments in the port. In doing so, we also studied whether these interventions would have a positive effect on the European Rail Freight Corridors, to support applications for government contributions.
