Effects of banning domestic flights

This study examines the socio-economic impact of a possible ban on domestic flights by jet or turboprop aircraft, considered by Minister Gilkinet due to environmental impacts. TML analyses the impact of this measure on affected target groups and society, focusing on flight movements, economic and social impacts, and environmental effects.

This study analyses the socio-economic impact of a ban on domestic flights by jet or turboprop aircraft. Federal Mobility Minister Gilkinet is considering such a ban because of the environmental impact of these flights. Aviation in general accounts for a significant proportion of CO₂ emissions. Flights over very short distances make up only a small proportion of all flights, but contribute disproportionately to these emissions. Moreover, good travel alternatives exist for these very short flights. Thus, considering the climate objectives to which Belgium has committed, a ban on domestic flights is a measure that, although limited, could have a relatively large impact.

TML will identify the potential effects of the measure for the various target groups involved and for society as a whole. To answer that question, we first want to get a good understanding of exactly what the measure does and what the effects on the number of flight movements will be. In summary, the study will answer four questions:

1. How many domestic flights are there currently, for which uses, and what is the expected evolution under unchanged policies?
2. Why are these domestic flights operated?
3. What effect is a ban expected to have on aviation and travel by other modes?
4. How will these changes affect the economy, society, and the environment?

To answer these questions, we collect and analyse available data on flight movements and motives between Belgian airports. We also conduct several interviews with industry stakeholders such as airport operators, charter companies, private jet operators, and regulatory authorities.

We then analyse the direct and indirect effects of the measure, particularly the effects on the number of aircraft movements, economic effects, social effects, and environmental effects.

The results of the analyses are compiled in a final report for the client.