Projection Model for Brussels Road Traffic

17001

From 2017 to 2019

Leefmilieu Brussel previously produced a reference scenario (BAU scenario) for road traffic in the Brussels Capital Region in 2050, based on COPERT4 software. TML updated the BAU scenario by making adjustments for the switch to COPERT5, updating the vehicle categories, and carrying out a detailed analysis of traffic composition.

At Leefmilieu Brussel, a reference scenario (BAU scenario) for road traffic in the Brussels Capital Region in 2050 was previously prepared. The current version is aligned with the COPERT4 software for calculating air emissions from road traffic. The scenario includes a full set of input data for COPERT4, the main ones being the vehicle fleet (number of vehicles) and mobility (vehicle kilometres), broken down by vehicle type according to COPERT4's classification.

In this assignment, the BAU scenario of road transport in the BCR was updated. This needed to be done in three areas:

Adjustments for the switch from COPERT4 to COPERT5: the update required us to consider the vehicle categories of the latest available version of the COPERT5 software, including hybrid (petrol and diesel) and electric vehicles, among others.
We had to update the vehicle fleet and mobility to take into account the latest available version of the reference data.
In addition to the vehicle fleet and mobility data, we also needed to review the other input data needed for COPERT calculations.

In doing so, an important part of the study was to try to estimate the composition of traffic as it actually circulates in the BCR, rather than simply looking at the vehicle fleet as registered in the BCR.